The Balkan War's high cost Author: Marvin Zonis: Publisher/Date: Boston Globe (US), July 23, 1999
Original location: http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/204/oped/The_Balkan_war_s_high_costP.shtml
The war against Serbia was a success from the point of view of US military technology and NATO unity. But the military victory will prove to be a catastrophe for Serbia, Kosovo, and the Balkans as a whole. The final bill for the NATO victory in Kosovo will be staggering, and it is unlikely that the winners will be willing to add to their burden by paying the price necessary to reconstruct Kosovo and Yugoslavia.
Given that aid for reconstruction is not likely to be forthcoming in any great amount, the destruction, the refugees, and the unleashed passions all point to more political instability.
The European Union estimates that the cost of rebuilding Kosovo alone will reach $4 billion. (That does not cover the costs of humanitarian aid or macroeconomic assistance.) The cost of rebuilding Serbia and Montenegro is in the $20 billion range. It appears highly unlikely that NATO will be willing to foot the bill, not when NATO’s 50,000 troops in Kosovo could cost as much as $25 billion a year. Some funds will come from the United States and Europe and international lending agencies, but not nearly enough to restore the damaged economies. Instability will come to haunt the continent.
The United States and Europe have made clear that no aid to reconstruct Serbia will be forthcoming as long as Milosevic remains in power. Almost everyone wants him out. But NATO has discovered that the bombing did far less damage to Serb forces in Kosovo than first estimated. Milosevic withdrew 47,000 troops with virtually all their equipment intact. The Yugoslavs were masters of deception, and NATO probably destroyed more decoys than tanks. Those well-armed troops are now available to protect the Milosevic regime and suppress separatism in Montenegro.
So, no aid to reconstruct Yugoslavia until Milosevic is out. Meanwhile, Yugoslavia’s economy will continue to wither. Worse, the economies of Romania and Bulgaria are suffering as well. NATO attacks destroyed all the bridges across the Danube and interrupted shipping.
In addition, more than 50 road and rail bridges were destroyed, making it virtually impossible to conduct cross-country trucking to and from Romania and Bulgaria. Their economies will decline by 5 percent this year, and their balance-of-payments deficit will balloon to $2 billion.
Were Milosevic to go, the successor regime would not likely be a great improvement. The Serbian Orthodox Church has declared Milosevic unfit to rule Serbia. Patriarch Pavle justified his declaration because, he said, he had seen ‘'evil'’ in Kosovo. But Bishop Atanasije, who often speaks for Patriarch Pavle, said in an interview: ‘'We blame Milosevic not for trying to defend the nation but for failing.'’ Virtually all of Milosevic’s so-called democratic opponents believe that Serbia is entitled to Kosovo and that Serbia’s mission is to protect the interests of Serbs no matter where they are, even if it means national suicide.